Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza But Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is another twist in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in the North African country recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave the president bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a long record of supporting Israel since his first term, encompassing his choice to move the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the global economy and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the wake of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the hostilities any closer to a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a summit in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia called Trump who then touted the possible summit in Budapest.
The next day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – even land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that concluding the hostilities is turning out harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when neither side wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.